Ghana Bond Market Turnover Drops 18% to GH¢326m as Investors Stay Cautious
Note: This report is being published on 23rd November. All turnover and yield data reflect market activity for the week ending 19th November. Updated figures for the current week will be released once market sources publish the next dataset.
The Ghana Bond Market witnessed a slowdown in activity during the week ending 19th November, as total turnover fell by 18.16% to GH¢326.76 million, down from GH¢399.29 million recorded the previous week. This decline in Ghana’s secondary bond market highlights continued investor caution amid fiscal uncertainties and anticipation of upcoming policy developments, reflecting overall cooling sentiment in the Ghana Bond Market.”
Ghana Bond Market: Mid-Curve Bonds Lead Trading Activity
Trading remained concentrated in the belly of the yield curve, showing investor preference for short-to-medium-term maturities:
- The February 2027 bond was the dominant instrument of the week, recording GH¢157.83 million in executed trades.
- The 2027–2030 maturity bracket served as the market anchor, accounting for 61% of total turnover at a weighted average yield of 15.62%.
- The 2031–2034 segment also saw solid participation, representing 39% of traded volume with a weighted yield of 15.81%.
- Meanwhile, the 2035–2038 long-end bonds continued to record minimal activity due to low appetite for duration risk. This trend further confirms that the Ghana Bond Market continues to attract stronger activity in mid-curve maturities rather than long-term instruments.
Why the Ghana Bond Market Is Cooling
Market participants are trading carefully for two major reasons:
1. Budget-Related Revenue Risks
Concerns raised in the national budget have made investors cautious about taking long-position exposure.
2. Awaiting MPC Policy Direction
The upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting is creating a wait-and-see environment as traders expect key signals on interest rates and liquidity.
According to analysts at Databank:
“We expect a steady but cautious tone next week. Yields may remain broadly stable but could edge slightly higher as investors assess revenue risks from the budget. Long-end activity will likely stay muted until the Finance Minister outlines clear steps to revitalise the domestic bond market.”
Broader Bond Market Context
This week’s decline aligns with broader fixed-income market trends observed across the Ghana Bond Market, highlighting how ongoing macroeconomic pressures continue to shape investor behaviour:
- Deloitte has cautioned that Ghana must ring-fence new borrowing to strengthen debt sustainability and restore investor confidence.
- The Ghana Fixed Income Market (GFIM), despite impressive long-term growth (GH¢1.07 trillion traded cumulatively between 2015–2025), is still facing inflation pressures, currency volatility, and fiscal constraints.
- Significant weekly declines have been seen earlier as well — including a sharp 62.9% drop to GH¢571.42 million during another period of market uncertainty.
- The government is expected to reopen domestic bond issuance in late 2026, a move aimed at improving liquidity and deepening the market over the long term.
Outlook: Cautious but Stable
Analysts predict a steady but muted trading environment moving forward.
Short-to-medium-term bonds are expected to remain the preferred choice, while investors may avoid long-dated instruments until clearer policy signals emerge.
The direction of the bond market will depend heavily on:
- MPC’s upcoming decisions
- Budget revenue performance
- Government’s debt management strategy
- Investor confidence in post-restructuring recovery
For now, stability — rather than aggressive trading — appears to be the dominant market theme.
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